A New Military Equation Between Syria and the Zionists

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

Syria surprised everyone today — with the possible exception of Russia and Iran — by directing its missiles at Zionist warplanes and reconnaissance aircraft on the Golan front. Syria has broken the rule it clung to for thirty years, one that did it great harm: that it would respond to Zionist aggression at a time and place of its own choosing.

The Arab citizen had grown weary of that Syrian line, and always felt the sting of a stance many considered humiliating. What the Arabs were really saying was: “Respond, even if you lose” — because there is dignity in responding, and humiliation in not responding.

Today, September 13, 2016, came as a surprise to everyone: a sorrowful one for those who stand with the Zionists, and a joyful one for those who long to see a humiliating day visited upon them. It may well be that the Zionist planes were not brought down, and it may well be that the Syrian military command did not judge the situation perfectly, but bringing them down is not what matters. What matters is that Syrian bullets have finally been fired at the Zionist military. Arabs had long wished that the Syrian command would order a single Syrian soldier to fire into the air toward the Zionists after every Zionist assault on Syria, if only as a token discharge of duty. Today, we hope the doctrine of “the appropriate time and place” has come to an end.

We fully recognize that the Syrian Arab forces are not ready, at this moment, to confront the Zionist entity, owing to the weakness of Syrian armament compared with Zionist armament, and owing to the circumstances the Syrian Arab country is currently passing through. We are certainly not interested in seeing Syria drawn into a war it would lose, but Syria ought always to respond in a measure proportionate to its capacity to sustain a full-scale war. There is concern that the entity might exploit the circumstances to wage a war on Syria whose outcome we cannot view with confidence, and so the Syrian response ought to be calibrated at a level that does not furnish a pretext for full-scale war.

The firing of Syrian missiles at the hostile aircraft may deter the Zionists from future aggression against Syria. The Zionists now know that Syria has made a decision to respond, one that could cost them dearly. The Zionist planes may not have been shot down this time, but they could well be shot down the next. This alone constitutes a deterrent to the Zionists. Zionist aircraft are extremely costly, but more important still is the possibility of a flight crew being captured, which would cause the Zionists no end of trouble. Cowardice never protected Syria from the Zionists, but courage always protects the one who possesses it — provided he is prepared for the day of reckoning.

Did Syria seek Russia’s permission for this confrontation, or did it merely inform the Russians of its intentions? This matters, because Russia is present in Syria, and America and Russia are facing off there by proxy, with Russia’s hand the upper one so far. Russia is concerned not to escalate with America, and does not wish to add to the ranks of those arrayed against it. Russia assesses the situation according to its own view of Zionist intervention against the regime and of American intervention. My assessment is that Syria informed Russia and Russia raised no objection, particularly since the S-400 missile system constitutes a Russian security umbrella defending its own aircraft and positions. Even so, Russia remains, in this particular juncture, keen to avoid escalating confrontations.

Since we are accustomed to Zionist arrogance, it is quite possible that, out of sheer obstinacy, the Zionist military will carry out a fresh assault on Syria, to test the Syrian reaction and to reassure its own public that Syria poses no deterrent to their entity. But the entity will not move toward war with Syria, because of the deterrent strength possessed by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has not brought its strike forces facing the Zionists into Syria, but has kept them on the front as a deterrent to the Zionists, and the Zionists fear confrontation with Hezbollah more than they fear confrontation with Syria. The Party stands ready and prepared for military confrontation at every moment, its fighters’ fingers on the trigger.

The Zionist entity fears the combat experience that Hezbollah and the Syrian army have built up over the preceding years. The army and the Party have gained new military tactics, and have gained varied, real, field-tested combat methods and confrontations, and the entity judges that its capacity to maneuver in the field has become limited and easily exposed and effectively countered — should ground confrontations occur. But the entity also judges that if the Syrian army does not move against its forces on the ground, then Hezbollah will drag the Zionist army into a fierce ground war. For this reason, it is difficult to expect a Zionist response that would provoke the parties militarily. In other words, matters will come to rest here, and will make the Zionists think twice before launching new air raids on Syria in the days ahead.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “معادلة عسكرية جديدة بين سوريا والصهاينة” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.