Bush Between Israel and Palestine

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

Many Arabs and Palestinians have written about Bush’s visit, some of them optimistic, though most see in Bush nothing more than a global con man capable of marketing his goods to the Arabs. I try here to sketch out some of the headings of the conversations Bush will exchange with his hosts.

First Issue: The Latest Intelligence

Bush will exchange with the Israelis the latest available intelligence on the scientific and combat capabilities of Iran and Hezbollah, and the two sides will go on to assess the implications of this for Israel and for American interests in the region.

With the Palestinian side, the conversation will revolve around where things stand with Hamas in Gaza, whether the Israeli strikes have proven effective or not, the effect of American money and salary disbursements on people’s political positions in the West Bank, and the Authority’s efforts in pursuing “terrorism” (resistance) and dismantling the infrastructure of the “terrorist” factions: Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and some of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs.

Second Issue: Preparing for Confrontation

The Israeli and American sides will discuss their military preparations for confronting the strength of Iran and Hezbollah, and will examine the robustness of the strategic military coordination between them. They will discuss other, non-military options that could spare them military effort, or that consume time and lead to internal conflicts within Arab and Islamic countries, or among the states of the region.

With the Palestinian side, Bush will discuss the Authority’s preparations for further security cooperation with General Keith Dayton and with Israel, and Bush will try to gauge how far money influences the passage of the Authority’s security policies in Israel’s favor.

Third Issue: So-Called Islamic Terrorism

The American and Israeli sides will share their concern over the growing strength of the Islamic organizations they call “terrorist,” and over the imminent danger they pose to Israel as a state and to the American project in the region. The two sides will assess the contribution of the European Union states, Japan, and Russia to counterterrorism.

With the Palestinian side, Bush will insist on the necessity of striking Hamas and Islamic Jihad and pursuing those he calls extremists, and the Palestinian side will respond that it is taking this matter very seriously, offering statistics on the arrests it has carried out against Hamas members, and on the Hamas-affiliated institutions that have been shut down. Bush will ask about the pursuit of Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian side will ask for time, saying that matters will proceed gradually.

Fourth Issue: Mobilizing Arab Capacities

The American and Israeli sides will assess how prepared the Arab states are to stand practically against Iran and Hezbollah — that is, to contribute to the war effort against them should war break out. The two sides will agree that this is an awkward matter for the Arab states, and that something must be offered them regarding the Palestinian cause to give them a justification before their own peoples for mobilizing their armies alongside Israel’s army. The two sides will agree to include, in their closing statement, approval of the establishment of a “viable” Palestinian state, and of easing the suffering of Palestinians. The two sides will agree on the necessity of focusing on so-called Islamic terrorism and its danger to the Arab regimes and their continued survival.

In Ramallah, meanwhile, the talk will be of mobilizing Arab capacities to support peace efforts between Palestinians and Israel, and of how far the Arabs remain committed to continuing to beg America for solutions.

Fifth Issue: Negotiating Efforts

The American and Israeli sides will assess the effect of money flowing in from the West on the Palestinian Authority’s willingness to make further concessions. They will assess, for instance, the intensity of the Palestinian reaction to settlement activity, and whether it has grown milder than before, and will assess how much the Palestinian Authority still focuses on the refugees’ right of return. The two sides will gauge how well their carrot-and-stick policy toward the Palestinians is working.

With the Palestinian side, the American president will offer more verbal and financial pacifiers, patting Abbas on the back and telling him: “Don’t worry, everything will be fine. If the matter concerns building a new house in Efrat or Kedumim, I’ll ask Israel to hold off; if the matter concerns the detainees, you know that releasing them could cause you trouble.”

In short, America’s issues with Israel are large, strategic, and rooted in alliance, while its issues with us are diversionary and enticing — the kind that money and comforts can resolve.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “بوش بين إسرائيل وفلسطين” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.