Iran Possesses Nuclear Weapons

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

North Korea’s recent nuclear test, on 25 May 2009, raises the question of Iran’s nuclear project with new force, because the West was so patient with North Korea that it slipped the leash entirely. The question certainly being asked in Israeli and American circles is: do we wait until Iran conducts its own nuclear test? There are those in Israel and America pressing hard for an attack on Iran and a strike on its nuclear facilities; and there are also those calling for patience, given how little information exists about Iran’s conventional and strategic military capabilities. Israel and America do not have sufficient information about Iranian armament, and they do not know exactly the scale of Iran’s response should an attack take place. The gamble here is enormous in either case. But the consequences would be truly dire and painful if Iran were struck and managed to absorb the blow and respond forcefully against the attackers. Iran would then be crowned queen of the region, and would become a power respected — even feared — on the international level.

My assessment is that Iran, in all likelihood, already possesses a nuclear weapon now, and that Western and Israeli bluster has become far too late, with no use left in building alliances with Arab states that collapse without a fight. I base this assessment on the following:

The Iranian president announced years ago that Iran was the eighth nuclear power in the world, meaning the five permanent members of the Security Council plus India and Pakistan. In terms of uranium enrichment, Iran is not the eighth, because many countries carry out enrichment — Japan, Germany, Brazil — but if it possesses a nuclear weapon, it would be the ninth. And if we say the Iranian president does not recognize Israel as a state, then Iran would indeed be the eighth.

It is likely that Iran purchased highly enriched uranium, or nuclear warheads, from the black market in Russia and Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Great chaos befell the states of the collapsed Soviet Union, and many officials raced to seize the opportunity and amass quick fortunes. If this is true, then Iran would have secured the uranium it needed before developing missile capabilities able to carry nuclear warheads — making it the first state to begin the path of nuclear armament in reverse order, preparing the uranium or the warhead before preparing the means of delivery.

“…seek help in fulfilling your needs through concealment.” The Iranian leadership does far more than it says, and its practical achievements come far faster than its announcements and statements in the field of armament. We have a lesson in Hezbollah, which surprised Israel and the world in 2006 with the weapons it possessed and the military tactics it followed. When the Iranians say they are enriching uranium to 3%, they are enriching it to 75%; and when they say their missile capabilities reach two thousand kilometers, they possess manufacturing technology reaching around five thousand kilometers. It is true that Iran has not conducted a nuclear test — but Israel has not conducted one either. And it is likely that the recent North Korean nuclear test was in fact a joint Korean-Iranian undertaking.

Over long years of watching Iranian statements, I have come to the conclusion that Iran’s leaders do not talk beyond their actual size; they weigh their words in a way that leaves them able to back up what they say. Their mouths are never bigger than their rifles, and they speak only to the degree that does not make them appear as liars. Iranian rhetoric over the past three years has been full of self-confidence regarding any attack America and Israel might launch against them. They do not say how they will respond, but their reaction points to great confidence in their ability to defeat any attack. What are they relying on? Do they have a nuclear bomb they could use if pushed too far? I think using a nuclear bomb, if one exists, is not on the table now unless Iran is struck with tactical nuclear weapons. But it is possible that Iran has developed strategic weapons still unknown to this day, foremost among them laser-based weapons — weapons that are, in theory, quick to deploy, lethal, and highly destructive. Has Iran managed to develop such technology?

Iran does not speak from a void, and what most disturbs the sleep of Americans and Israelis is that they do not know what fills this apparent void. And what stands before the American and Israeli strategic planners? It is not wise to wait for your enemy until his forces are complete; and if you are doubtful of the outcome of a war, you must open channels of understanding. Opening channels of dialogue is available to America — so what is available to Israel?

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “إيران تمتلك السلاح النووي” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.