Lebanon Facing the Hour of Reckoning

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

I have long held the view that Lebanon could be saved from its internal problems if Hezbollah judged that it was capable of carrying out military operations against Israel, thereby redirecting internal and Arab attention toward a great cause that would freeze Lebanon’s internal problems — which might in turn make it easier to search for solutions to those problems afterward. It was clear that there were internal Lebanese forces cooperating with Arab regimes, Israel, and America that would not leave Hezbollah alone, and that would keep the party occupied with internal matters in order to weaken it and divert it from confronting Israel. This camp did not appear to care about Lebanese blood the way it cared about Israeli blood, and it was prepared to continue its provocations even if that led to civil war.

I sensed this in 2008, when the March 14 team tried to seize control of Hezbollah’s communications network, and I judged in an article of mine on May 6, 2008, that the party would not use its strike force to correct the situation, but would instead “use a secondary force capable of settling matters quickly, before Israel is able to come to anyone’s rescue. That is, if the Lebanese government, Jumblatt, and Geagea are working to militarily drain Hezbollah and give relief to Israel, the Arab regimes, and the United States, their effort will not succeed. I judge that Hezbollah has arranged its affairs with its allies in a way that will dash the hopes of all those betting on the party’s internal defeat.” And this is exactly what happened, as the party took control of West Beirut with astonishing speed and at the lowest possible cost, on May 7, 2008.

Now the Lebanese arena is witnessing mounting pressure on Hezbollah because of the international tribunal, which is expected to issue its indictment regarding the assassination of Hariri soon. They are tightening the pressure on Hezbollah, especially after the health-clinic incident that took place on October 26, 2010.

My assessment is that Hezbollah has endured a great deal, and has absorbed a great many quarrels and provocations, and since the clash with Israel has not taken place, it is expected that steps will be taken toward settling matters in Lebanon from two angles: getting rid of the international investigators, and changing the Lebanese government. Hezbollah has no need to use weapons, but it will keep some of its forces and those of its domestic allies on standby in case of any emergency, and it may content itself with bringing down the government by adding Walid Jumblatt’s bloc’s votes to those of its allies, thereby forming a parliamentary majority capable of changing the current government.

Lebanon is heading toward a radical change, and it is supposed to be swift and quiet so as not to give Israel an opportunity to intervene and drag the party into a raging war at a time unsuitable for it. The international investigators will be pursued, and great pressure will be directed at those who support the international tribunal in order to make them back down. It has become clear, through Mr. Hassan Nasrallah’s speech of October 28, 2010, that the party has now added those who support the international tribunal to the list of enemies of the resistance, and it is clear that this carries a military dimension.

Matters have reached a point that exceeds Hezbollah’s capacity to overlook or tolerate, and I believe things have reached their final limit. I judge that Lebanon will enter a new phase marked by new consequences, foremost among them an assault on American influence in Lebanon and a diminishing of the role of the Arab regimes allied with Israel. That is, the matter will not stop at the question of the international tribunal, but will extend to encompass Lebanon’s place in the regional balance of power. This means that Hezbollah and its allies will win this round as well, and the camp of resistance and defiance in the Arab-Islamic region will be strengthened.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “لبنان أمام ساعة الحسم” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.