Patience Before Drawing Conclusions from Trump's Visit

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

Many writers and analysts have jumped to conclusions about Trump’s visit to the Arab region, and many media outlets have done the same, already drawing up the outlines of American policy under Trump.

It is worth noting that most of those who have jumped to conclusions see the Arabs’ fate as not lying in their own hands, even if they do not say so explicitly. This is an entrenched Arab affliction, in that others lying in wait for the Arab nation understand that the nation is internally defeated, lacking self-confidence, and always bends itself to the policies and interests of others.

At the level of rulers, intellectuals, and thinkers alike, we constantly reinforce this impression, as though we had nothing to do with determining our own fate, and no capacity to confront our own problems and solve them in ways suited to us. We are always searching for solutions from others, who can only ever steer matters in a way that serves their own interests.

In any case, it is not wise to jump to conclusions about American policy under Trump right now, based on the statements he made in Riyadh or in occupied Palestine, because Trump’s knowledge of global issues is very limited, and he is still learning from his advisers and from established American institutions, such as the Central Intelligence Agency, the State Department, and the Defense Department, about various matters ranging from Latin America to Ukraine, the South China Sea to the Palestinian cause.

He needs at least a year to crystallize a vision, strategy, or plan on every issue America sticks its nose into.

He still does not know the complexities of the Palestinian cause well, and could easily fall into many mistakes. For instance, he did not fully gauge Americans’ position on a war with Iran, and made many statements against Iran that could lead to an escalation, closing the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global oil crisis that states allied with America would not welcome. He also promised to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, then backtracked, not knowing certain details, and his position drew the wrath of religious Jews against him. This means a lack of clarity remains the clearest hallmark of Trump’s policy.

There are constants in American foreign policy that American institutions guard and watch over, such as guaranteeing Zionist security, but the president of the state does not fully dissolve into these constants, losing his own personality — he usually leaves his own touches and fingerprints. Trump is not expected to change American constants, but he will be present in many of the details of how these constants are applied.

Trump, like other American presidents, does not deviate from traditional American policy, which rests fundamentally on power kneaded together with interests and dominance. America’s position on Palestine is well known, evidenced by the various forms of aid America provides the Zionist entity, and the positions America adopts in international forums against Palestinians. Even though the American president holds to the broad outlines of American policy on various global issues, every president leaves personal fingerprints related to the details, not the general policy. For this reason, it is possible Trump will diverge in some details concerning the Palestinian cause.

For instance, he visited the Buraq Wall, which most Palestinian media outlets call the Wailing Wall — something America is usually careful to avoid, so as not to sever a thread of its relations with Arab and Palestinian rulers.

On the other hand, Trump showed his positions toward the Palestinian cause as a candidate, and made clear, as a private person not sitting in the presidential chair, that he supports settlement building and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state. He leans toward a regional solution as an alternative to a negotiated solution between Palestinians and Zionists. These personal positions are bound to be reflected in the president’s official policy, and this is what we will see in the days ahead.

As for the most important aspect of Trump’s visit, it can be summed up in two things: collecting tribute from the Arabs, and escaping the American domestic front, which is tightening the noose around him. Trump came to the region to collect tribute from the Arab regimes, and found the money bag ready, containing about $480 billion. The Gulf rulers had taken precautions, gathering the money before Trump even asked for it.

This is the greatest tribute sum known to history, and the Gulf states must, from now on, establish a special tribute fund to hand over the annual dues owed to the United States as the price of the security umbrella it provides.

On the American domestic front, Trump faces broad media campaigns affecting American public opinion regarding what is called Russian interference in the American elections, and the leaking of classified information to the Russian president.

Trump, exhausted, faces the American domestic front, occupied with defending himself, and lacks the time to attend to global issues.

Trump went along with the symphony of “terrorism and terrorists,” joining the Arab chorus that considers Arab resistance in Palestine and Lebanon terrorism. He allowed himself, as many Arab rulers allow themselves, to absolve the Zionist occupation of terrorism charges, directing the charge instead at the Palestinian and Lebanese fighters defending Arab freedom and dignity.

But will his endorsement of these terrorism narratives translate into concrete action on the ground against the Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and Hezbollah movements? It is quite possible he will muster forces and policies against these movements, but the details of what actually happens on the ground remain a matter for the future, once Trump has accumulated enough knowledge to make decisions.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “التريث في استخلاص نتائج زيارة ترامب” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.