Russia's March Toward Multipolarity

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

Many were optimistic, just as many were troubled, when Russia carried out its military campaign against Georgia and achieved its goals, while the West stood shouting in the media and shackled on the ground. The desire for a second global pole to rival the United States was the source of the optimism, while the possibility of breaking the monopoly on power and influence was the source of the concern. There are those who have grown weary of America’s vast domination over the world, and weary of what they see as an injustice weighing upon them, and there are those who saw that Russia might spoil the United States’ pursuit of cultural and intellectual domination over the world, which makes it educationally acceptable as a state that harbors absolute truth.

On the Arab stage, many analyses emerged, most of them carrying glad tidings for the frustrated Arab public about the possibility of change on the international stage because the Russian bear had bared its fangs. Broad segments of the Arab public and intelligentsia expressed delight at the Russian military move, not out of hatred for Georgia, but out of spite toward the United States and Western states generally, seeing in it a new Russian gesture that might signal an emergence from the cave, and work toward restoring the standing Russia had lost since the collapse of the Soviet Union. So does what Russia did actually indicate the end of the unipolar era, or is America still a power beyond challenge, and will it remain the sole, unrivaled pole for many long years to come?

The Russian Desire

Before speculating about the future of polarity on the international stage, it is important to examine whether Russia actually desires to be a pole rivaling the United States or not. It is possible that Russia does not aspire to a polar role in which it competes with the United States, or cooperates with it in shaping global conditions, and it is possible that Russia was merely defending itself when it rattled its military stick in Georgia’s face, wanting to send America a message warning it against any further approach to Russia’s borders. Perhaps Russia’s aim was to demonstrate its capacity for deterrence and affirm its military strength without any international dimensions lying beneath the surface.

It is not expected that the Russian president will deliver a speech in which he says he is determined to make Russia a second pole rivaling the United States, so that we might infer the Russian desire from that; but observers can infer this desire through policies, measures, or practical steps that Russia takes beyond its borders.

Indicators of the Russian Desire

There are a number of indicators pointing to a Russian desire to enter the international arena; I mention some of them:

The gesture toward Poland with nuclear weapons should American missiles be deployed on Polish soil. This gesture cannot be taken as a slip of the tongue, a passing thought, or merely a heavy-handed joke; one must draw out its implications and intentions. It may not be Russia’s intention to actually use nuclear weapons, but the mere fact of broaching the subject means that the Russian leadership is serious about challenging the American missile shield. This challenge will impose requirements on both Russia and America, from the angles of international standing, prestige, and readiness in all fields to prove their worthiness.

Russia’s announcement about Israeli weapons in Georgia, and about Israel’s conspiring with Russia’s neighboring states, particularly regarding the provision of logistical services for an Israeli air attack on Iran. Such an announcement carries an implicit, unappeasing stance toward Israel, and amounts to sharp criticism of Israel or a rejection of its policies related to Iran and to the American missile shield. It is known that Israel and America form the heart of what is called the international community, and challenging either state means challenging the other.

The announcement in Moscow of a new intercontinental missile with multiple nuclear warhead capability, capable of piercing radar systems, as well as the announcement of preparations for a plan for effective nuclear defense within the next few years. This means that Russia is proceeding with the development of its nuclear and conventional military capabilities.

A visit by units of the Russian navy to a Venezuelan port, in a clear challenge to the United States, which considers South America an undisputed zone of its influence.

Russia’s rejection of American demands to impose additional sanctions on Iran.

These and other indicators are considered genuine signs of a new Russian policy at both the domestic and international levels, and they herald new developments on the international stage, but it is very difficult to conclude from them that Russia has finally decided to break the bond entirely and go all the way in the challenge.

Vision as a Necessity for Polarity

Whoever wants or wishes to be a leader must possess the qualities of leadership. Vision is considered the most important of these qualities, because it determines the intellectual and cultural starting points and touches on some of the methods and means by which the leader wants to be a leader. He needs to tell those he wants to lead what they must rally around and what they must defend, and for what purpose they must work. The pioneer of a revolution, for example, explains to people why he wants the revolution, and speaks to them about its goals and some of its methods and means, and then works to gather people around him; likewise the leader of a state, and the leader of a gang, etc.

[the vision would have to differ from] the one adopted by the United States, and begin taking the appropriate steps to lift or reduce this oppression. Or it is possible that it might begin by putting forward the idea of internationalism as opposed to the idea of globalization adopted by America, affirming through it cultural and intellectual diversity, and the participation of all nations in shaping the global cultural climate in such a way that each nation preserves its authenticity without withdrawal or isolation. Or it is possible that Russia might begin with a new capitalist idea that subjects major corporations and global financial movement to new international laws, written and agreed upon, etc.

The world is living in a state of turmoil and unease as a result of American economic and military policies, and developing alternative visions would be no miracle should Russia want to enter the arena. But it cannot, in any case, wage a battle without a vision.

Economic, Financial, and Military Capabilities

The Arab proverb says that whoever wants to become a camel driver must widen the door of his house. Polarity is costly, and the state that wants to be a pole must lavish money on its admirers and those wishing to sail with it, and must be capable of defending them, and perhaps it must also placate hypocrites, and buy neutrality at times. Russia is certainly not required to match America’s economic and financial capacity, but it is expected to have the capacity to sustain itself and manage its affairs; what is required, though, is that it be a peer in terms of military deterrence.

Does Russia have the economic and financial capacity now to bear the burdens of polarity? Its income has improved as a result of rising oil and gas prices, and it has achieved notable stability in its economy, and it no longer needs Western states, but it is possible that it is still in the process of building and meeting the needs of Russians who still aspire to a better standard of consumption than what they currently have. There are many internal requirements that demand a wise Russian spending policy that exploits every ruble to improve the economic conditions of its population, and it is doubtful that it is currently capable of opening its hand in a way that covers the various financial requirements on the international stage.

Russia now faces the question of developing its economy to become a competitive economy if it continues adopting the capitalist economic system. Given the current situation, and the immense technical development on the international stage, Russia cannot fully open its markets to global trade, nor can it close them off, and the economic challenge remains before it, constituting a major obstacle to its penetration of global markets. For this reason Russia may busy itself with crafting a capitalist system that preserves a wide margin for state intervention, and limits the domination of modern liberal capitalism.

The States of Direct Polarization

Among the important factors indicating Russia’s intentions and desires are its relations with the “rebellious” states according to the American classification, and with resistance movements classified by America as terrorist. If Russia is serious about challenging America, and truly rejects unipolar domination, then it is expected that Russia would touch on some American taboos, for example supporting the Iraqi resistance and offering diplomatic backing to Iran, and easing pressure on Venezuela. There are points considered targets of American pressure aimed at bringing to heel or neutralizing, such as Syria, hesitant to march in step with the Arab regimes with real influence in Arab affairs, and North Korea and Cuba, and there are also resistance movements that fall within the circle of American pressure such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and drawing close to these points is considered an affront to American foreign policy, and an assault on the American approach to globalizing the world.

If Russia wishes to have an influential voice on the international stage within a short time, it will heat up the hot spots and declare, for example, that Hezbollah is not a terrorist organization and is waging a legitimate war against Israel, or declare its intention to support the besieged Hamas movement in Gaza by carrying out activities aimed at breaking the siege. In all cases, Russian rapprochement with these points is considered a major and worrying challenge for the United States, and constitutes an opportunity for states marching in step with America to reconsider their positions.

As for the Arab street, Russia will find no difficulty in finding a supportive ground for itself if it decides to challenge America. The Arab street generally, with the exception of the Gulf street, harbors hatred for America, and awaits the day it is afflicted by the misfortunes of fate.

The Global Financial Crisis

America is now under the weight of the financial crisis, and under the weight of accusations from both friends and enemies that it is responsible for the crisis because of its greed and mismanagement of financial affairs. The world will now challenge America’s financial authority, and work to bring about fundamental changes in the economic and financial systems, and America must contract if it wants to ease its exit from the grave crisis.

Russia can exploit the matter as a point of strength in its favor, and focus on the idea of internationalism instead of the idea of globalization, which America considered an approach to its domination of the world. Russia now holds a powerful dialectical hand before the peoples of the earth to seriously influence United States policy and reduce its intervention in the internal affairs of nations, and it will certainly find receptive ears if it sees fit to press toward an internationalism that respects peoples and cultures, and steers away from a mindset of domination.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “مسيرة روسيا نحو القطبية” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.