The American Bull Shrinks into a Calf

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

Let me note at the outset that I do not use the words above to give offense, but rather to point to a tradition described in terms of cowboys; the description of the “American bull” is akin to my description of the “Russian bear” and the “Chinese dragon,” and perhaps to the description of the “Arab horse.”

The roar of the American president against Syria has shrunk in volume, and he has decided to hide behind the two houses of the American legislature, or Congress. He first assumed that the America of old was still around, but it appears he discovered that it no longer exists. America used to content itself with swift threats and warnings, then mass its forces and deliver its strikes, and it is now clear that it finds itself unable to do, militarily, what it had grown accustomed to doing over the years. Its military power has swelled and grown larger, but others have acquired a rising military power that now weighs on America’s military conduct on the world stage.

The Syrian question has not been easy since the crisis in Syria began, and everyone who thought, over the preceding period, that they could settle the battle easily found themselves mistaken, and found in the end that Syria in its entirety is the victim. From the outset, some factions of the Syrian opposition have demanded, alongside Arab states, Israel, and Turkey, a foreign intervention to settle matters against the existing regime, and these same people rejoiced and celebrated after the chemical weapons issue on the assumption that America had finally decided to put an end to the regime. I explained a great many things in my article titled “The American Bull and Its War Adventures”: that the matter is not easy, that America will suffer a defeat if it does not attack, a greater defeat if it attacks and meets a response, and that it will only win if it attacks without facing any response at all.

The American president became certain that the axis of resistance — represented by Iran, Syria, and a silent Hezbollah — would respond forcefully to any American attack, and he verified thoroughly the firmness of the Russian position and the opposition of the Chinese position, and so he decided to follow the example of the British prime minister and hide behind the legislature. Thus the president moved from a position of determination to strike Syria to a position of being suspended on a Congressional decision that might go either for or against him. The coming days will witness wide debate in the United States over the strike, and it is highly likely that American public opinion will be against the attack, and Congress’s decision will follow accordingly. The important thing is that the muscles the American president flexed at the outset have shrunk to second-rate proportions. The bull is no longer a raging bull; it now bears the mark of a calf fit for slaughter.

And because of the bewilderment and confusion into which the American administration fell, it made a decision that gives Syria ten golden and necessary days to prepare militarily, should the attack take place. During these days, Syria can bring in quantities of lethal weapons, can move military equipment to new locations, set up mock-ups of military sites and fake equipment that broadcast signals to satellites as though they were real, and can dig further underground, etc. Hezbollah, for its part, can carry out further tactical activities that bring it closer to Haifa. The same applies to Iran. I am not a military man, but strategically I understand that the United States has taken an action that entirely contradicts the simplest forms of tactical military intelligence.

What the American president has done constitutes half a defeat, and the military option still stands. It has probably helped the French demand a role for the French legislative assembly before the French presidency decides to go to war. And there is no doubt that it has shocked his Arab, Zionist, and Turkish allies.

It is important that fingers remain on the trigger, because the possibility of American aggression still stands, and it is important for those who cry out for an American role to think instead about resolving our internal Arab problems without Western intervention, which has so often done harm to Arabs and Muslims.

What is happening now constitutes a historic turning point in the Arab-Islamic region, in that the axis of resistance is proving itself, and the opportunity still remains open for it to prove itself further. The axis has achieved half a victory so far, and it is likely that an American attack would end up serving the achievement of a complete victory. If America backs down from its threat, or if it attacks and fails, many balances in the Arab-Islamic region will shift. There are Arab states that will suffer a severe setback that will make it difficult for them to continue sabotaging the region in the service of America and Israel, and there are partisan forces in Lebanon and Palestine that will be stunned and weakened. That is to say, American-Israeli influence will shrink, and Arab initiatives toward Israel and negotiating with it will suffer a wide-ranging disappointment.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “الثور الأمريكي يتقلص عجلا” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.