The Promised Day Between America and Iran

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

An observer following the antagonistic relations between the United States and Iran notices that the curve of this animosity has intensified over time since 1979, which saw Iranian students storm the American embassy in Tehran and take hostages. In its wake, the United States began implementing escalating sanctions against Iran, including refusing to supply Iranian aviation with the spare parts needed for flight safety. Iran responded with further media campaigns against America, branding it the Great Satan, while America escalated its direct and indirect incitement of the Arabs against Tehran. Even Muslim unity was not spared the evils of this antagonism, as talk of Sunnis and Shia surfaced, and numerous books and writings were published glorifying one sect at the expense of another. A number of Arab leaders even began participating in the sectarian campaign, owing to the impact the Iranian revolution had in raising the level of Islamic awareness among Sunnis.

This tension gave rise to a long war between the Arabs and Iran that drained the resources of both sides, to the benefit of America and Israel. As soon as the war came to an end and America’s hope of exhausting Iran was disappointed, it itself began carrying out military operations against Iran and denying it many of the raw materials needed for industry and technical development. America struck Iranian platforms in the Gulf, attacked and destroyed Iranian boats, and planted its eyes inside Iran without finding anyone to deter it, owing to Iran’s military weakness. But Iran, having learned its lesson during the Arab-Iranian war, accelerated the pace of its military manufacturing, allocated a high proportion of its national income to scientific and technical development, and entered the world of nuclear technology research.

The Nuclear Program and Sanctions

The United States, and even Israel, could have struck Iran and destroyed many of its industrial and military facilities in 2003, but it seems that the information the two states had on Iran’s military programs was neither abundant nor sufficient, or did not signal danger. This is a matter of great importance for anyone wishing to assess the likelihood of confrontation between the two sides, given that Iran managed over time to keep many security matters secret, and was keen to achieve scientific and technical accomplishments quickly and quietly, without announcements or bravado. Because of this, the world woke up to the Iranian president announcing uranium enrichment in Iran, and to steady work on developing nuclear accelerators to raise the level of enrichment, as well as developing heavy-water facilities and industrial-scale enrichment.

If one follows the curve of tension between the United States, together with Israel, and Iran in recent times, or after Iran achieved its nuclear successes, one finds that the level of threats and intimidation against Iran has risen, and with it military training, preparation, and readiness have risen; economic sanctions have begun escalating at the international level through the Security Council, and at the level of the Western bloc of countries that calls itself the international community. The Security Council decided in 2006 and 2010 to impose sanctions on Iran, and the Western states decided to raise the level of sanctions to the point of refusing to import Iranian oil.

As for the military aspect, it is noticeable that the United States no longer directs its aerial and naval bombs against Iranian targets, and it, together with Israel, has come to work on covert operations to penetrate Iranian ranks and strike facilities and scientists. Israel, and perhaps America along with it, has succeeded in killing some of Iran’s nuclear scientists and in striking vital industrial facilities. (This, of course, is according to estimates and not according to statements officially announced by the parties concerned.)

Iran has not retaliated for the attacks on its scientists and facilities, but it is intensifying its display of the deterrent power it now possesses, and repeating its military maneuvers across various theaters and weapons types as clear messages to America and Israel. Iran does not possess the same intelligence capabilities that Israel and America possess, and it is not easy for it to respond to assassination with assassination, but it is trying to say that it is ready for military confrontation given the advanced capabilities it has.

The Absence of Talk

For America, Iran is an evil state; for Iran, America is a satanic state. The two countries do not speak directly, and do not sit together at a table to exchange views; there are third parties who convey diplomatically what the other side is thinking. But the two converse publicly through fiery, or sometimes moderate, statements, and through shows of force and military maneuvers. Each of the two states has worked to develop an ideological view of the other, to the point that it has become embarrassing, both internationally and domestically, for them to sit together at one table.

Despite states’ attempts to resolve their problems through negotiation and dialogue, and the inclination of many countries toward peaceful solutions and away from war, this does not apply to Iran and America in their tense bilateral relations, since the indirect dialogue between them always involves warning and threat. And the more time passes, the more the level of verbal tension between them rises, which constitutes a strong indication that matters between them are not moving toward a solution or de-escalation, but rather toward breaking bones.

From time to time, officials from both countries appear speaking in a softened tone, but this has not eased the intensity of the friction between the two states overall, and it may only be aimed at addressing other countries that see in a clash between Iran and America great harm befalling other nations and the world as a whole. What matters to the observer is not what is heard but what is seen, and what we see is a continuation of combat readiness.

The Nuclear Program and Arm-Twisting

…the world, but rather with Israeli and American hegemony over the region. If the matter were about morality, the two states would not possess nuclear weapons, but America wants to keep the Gulf’s oil under its own dominance and no one else’s, even though its own imports from it are small compared to other countries such as Italy, China, and Japan; and Israel wants to retain a crushing deterrent power so that no state in the region can contest its survival and dominance. America can always claim credit with the Western states, Japan, and South Korea for keeping oil flowing to their industrial wheels, thereby remaining a dominant state concealed from the media’s eyes, and Israel can claim credit with the West that its eyes are watchful in pursuing the extremists who threaten their countries’ interests.

America fears Iran contesting its leadership over the Gulf, and Israel fears a serious development in confronting it, especially after it experienced the strength of Hezbollah and Hamas in 2006 and 2009 respectively. Israel experienced a new kind of war and resistance, owed to a large degree to the support Iran provided to the two movements. Israel keeps the nuclear option in reserve to deter the Arabs, and its ability to do so would be rendered null if Iran developed something that deters its deterrent, especially since Iran can withstand nuclear strikes because of its vast geographic area and the dispersal of its facilities, unlike Israel, which is shaken by conventional missiles.

As for Iran, it wants to achieve genuine independence and the capacity to make decisions freely, something the Arab-Islamic region has not witnessed in terms of action grounded in science and technology. Even Pakistan, which developed the nuclear bomb, did not insist on independence, and left itself a tool in American hands.

Combat Parity

There are those who believe Iran exaggerates its strength, and that its talk of manufacturing weapons and developing combat capabilities is no different from the talk of Arab leaders who long promised their peoples resounding victory. This is not accurate, because the world sees Iran’s increasing manufacturing capacity, though America remains the stronger and longer-armed of the two. America can bomb Iran with hundreds of aircraft at once, and can strike it from thousands of kilometers away using its various bases and warships deployed across the world’s seas. Despite this, Iran can inflict harm on America in several ways. Here is what each side can and cannot do to the other:

America is capable of using ground forces, but this option is unlikely because it cannot bear large human and material losses. But it can bomb Iranian facilities from air and sea with hundreds of aircraft and Tomahawk missiles. Its problem here, however, is that it does not fully know Iran’s aerial capabilities or air defenses. The Iranians announce missile systems and anti-aircraft defenses, but these have not been tested on battlefields. America also has the weapon of sanctions, through which it can pressure Iran economically, pushing it toward surrender, or pushing its people toward revolution and toppling the ruling system. It also has the weapon of intelligence, which can kill Iranian scientists and destroy Iranian industrial and military facilities. And let us not forget that America is a nuclear state, and has previously used nuclear weapons.

As for Iran, it can strike numerous American targets spread across Arab countries, Afghanistan, and the Central Asian states, and in neighboring seas such as the Gulf, the Sea of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. Iran’s missiles are capable of striking many targets, including Israel, without an effective counter-force from Patriot missiles or Israel’s Iron Dome missiles. If Iran manages to sink an American warship and kill hundreds of American soldiers, America will find itself facing immense domestic popular pressure to stop the war. My assessment is that Iran will be able to inflict great harm on the United States and Israel, based on the fact that Iran has not lied in the impressions it has conveyed to the world about its scientific and technical capability.

The Fear of Not Winning

It is notable that Israel and America have been threatening Iran for years, but the threat has not yet been put into effect. Israel and America cannot guarantee victory in any air attack on Iran, since they do not know precisely all the Iranian nuclear sites spread across an area of 1,600,000 square kilometers, and do not know exactly which sites are real and which are decoys, not to mention sites that even the mightiest bombs cannot penetrate. Nor do the two states know whether their aircraft will be shot down over Iran or not, nor do they know precisely how, or how forcefully, Iran would respond. That is, the air attack would remain within a partially unknown picture that makes confidence in victory weak.

As for Iran, it is not interested in attacking the American navy because it knows that war is destructive, and because it is still in the process of building the strength that will secure it an advanced position at the global level, not merely the regional one. Iran can defend and hold firm, but it is not in a position to attack American forces.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz

Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz if the Security Council adopts a resolution imposing a comprehensive embargo on Iranian oil. But it is unlikely that the Security Council will adopt such a resolution, since Russia and China oppose it. Moreover, America may well content itself with stopping European and Japanese imports of Iranian oil, so as not to further inflame the military situation in the Gulf. America is in an election year, and it and its allies face a major financial and economic problem that cannot bear a further rise in oil prices. But this will leave Israel facing great uncertainty that threatens it whether it launches an attack on Iran or not. If it does, it takes a gamble regarding Iran’s reaction; and if it does not, it also takes a gamble, because Iran will continue developing its nuclear capabilities.

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “اليوم الموعود بين أمريكا وإيران” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.