What's New in Russian Foreign Policy

by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem

Russia recently announced a new “doctrine” for its foreign policy, encompassing a number of important points, which various media outlets have treated with analysis and scrutiny. Among these points is that Russia will not submit to American pressures that might be exerted against it, and will respond forcefully to whatever pressures and harassment it might be subjected to, that it supports Syria’s independence and territorial unity, and stands firmly against terrorism, working to establish an international coalition to confront and eliminate it.

It also announced it will reinforce its presence in the Pacific and at both the North and South Poles, and will work to reinforce the United Nations’ role as the reference point for resolving international crises, reinforcing the standing of international law and obligating states to respect it. It directed criticism at the United States, which has worked for years to control the world and monopolize the search for solutions to international crises, and the new “doctrine” said America has no right to globalize its domestic legislation and impose it on the world.

Russia’s Sense of Strength

Russia feels it has emerged from the state of weakness it fell into after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Difficult economic and social conditions befell it after its western and southern wings flew away, ending in a federal union not free of internal challenges. The West also exploited its weakness and dictated many policies to it because of its dire need for Western money and investments, but it began, years ago, recovering its economic health, and rid itself of many social ailments, especially the rampant capital that had overwhelmed the middle class and exhausted the less fortunate groups. It was its good fortune that gas and oil prices leapt high over a long period, and it seized the opportunity to improve the economic conditions of a large proportion of its population.

Russia moved from a phase of inward contraction to a phase of recovering its pride, even if only somewhat, and circumstances arose enabling it to do so, foremost among them the Georgian situation. Georgia did not act wisely, perhaps falling under two mistaken assumptions: that Russia was too incapacitated to attack it and impose its conditions, and that the West would not leave it alone if Russia attacked it. Both assumptions were disappointed, and Russia acted alone against it without Westerners doing anything but making media noise.

Russia won despite America’s objection, which stood against the war and directed many condemnations at Russian actions. Then the Ukrainian problem reared its head, and Russia did not hesitate in what it called reclaiming the Crimean Peninsula. It sent its forces in broad daylight to the place, took control of it, and declared its return to the bosom of its mother, Russia. The Russians found the Western reaction was nothing but empty bluster. This is why the Russians raised the challenge another notch when they provided the necessary support to the Ukrainian rebels in eastern Ukraine. Western politicians and media figures spoke against this step, and in the end found nothing to do but impose sanctions on Russia, even knowing that sanctions policy has historically failed and never succeeded against any state it was imposed on.

The Russians’ sense of strength accumulated until matters reached Syria. The Americans hesitated a great deal in supporting a side to settle the battles, choosing instead to destroy Syria, so the Russians exploited the resulting vacuum in Syria and leapt into the field to take sole charge of managing and directing the conflict in the way they see fit. The West still competes politically and through the media to have a share in steering the wheel, but the Russians judge that America and its allies have no field or door for serious influence in Syria other than the door of media and political statements.

Western Arrogance

What do you do if you want a cat to turn into a lion? You corner it. This is what Westerners, the United States foremost among them, did to Russia. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have worked to besiege Russia militarily, security-wise, politically, economically, and financially, and inflicted many humiliations on it, foremost among them the humiliation in Iraq. Westerners also supported major capitalists in Russia in order to transform the Russian economy into an economic system resembling European economies, causing Russia many social afflictions, including the spread of criminal gangs and drugs, deliberately sabotaging Russian society.

At the same time, the West began planning to besiege Russia militarily and paralyze its capacity for confrontation — America and its allies worked to expand NATO, which a number of states that had been part of the Soviet system joined, mostly states neighboring Russia, and America came out with the idea of a missile shield that would encircle Russia from three sides. America claimed this shield was directed against Iranian missiles, but this was not convincing to the Russians.

The West went to great lengths encroaching on Russia and working to humiliate it, taking into account that it is a great nuclear power capable of destroying Europe and America simultaneously. The Westerners’ steps against Russia were not proportionate to the actual military balances. Perhaps this stems from the superiority complex the West suffers from in dealing with nations. They feel they are the masters of blessings, the only ones capable of achieving global stability, security, and peace, and deal with other peoples as backward, awaiting a loaf of bread from the generosity of their treasuries.

We Arabs have many experiences with Westerners, who have long used us as mounts for their policies and interests. Since the end of the Second World War until now, they have toyed with the Arab homeland and its citizens, stirring strife, hatred, and grudges, and supporting despotic, hedonistic rulers skilled at nothing but defeats.

Expectations

Given the developments currently underway on the international stage and the new Russian doctrine of international policy, we expect further developments, including:

The Arms Race

The world now lives in an atmosphere of Cold War, even though the tone of politicians from all sides is largely soft. The Russians and Americans are keen to soften the tone of their statements, and so are European politicians, and all of them affirm they do not seek escalation and confrontation.

For us, who live on the margins, escalation serves none of them, but their escalation is usually conducted by proxy — meaning we are the fuel of their escalation and their indirect wars. But at the same time, they exchange glances and scrutiny, and have come to realize that determination is visible on their faces, even if it leads to destructive military adventures. This is why each side will seek to close the military gaps it suffers from, regarding military equipment especially.

Russia understands that its conventional weapons, regarding land and air forces, are not as advanced as Western weapons, and will seek further efforts to develop better air and land capabilities, while America understands that Russian weapons capable of nullifying its air and land superiority are very advanced and spoil many of its military plans.

This is why we expect a race to produce new generations of weapons, especially regarding electronic technology and tank and aircraft weaponry. The race may extend to nuclear weapons as well, despite some parties’ affirmation of their intention to reduce their nuclear capabilities. The race will extend into space, and each side will be keen to develop space technology for espionage and reconnaissance, and to nullify the other side’s technologies.

Flexing Muscles

The competing states, Russia especially, will resort to flexing their muscles to send strong messages to other parties. Russia will fly more of its strategic aircraft across the world’s skies, especially in the northern hemisphere. It will raise the pace of its submarines’ and warships’ roaming in the oceans and seas, and will concentrate many units in the Pacific Ocean areas near the South and North China Seas and the Indian Ocean area near the Arabian Sea and the Arab-Iranian coasts, and will not leave the Mediterranean Sea as a swimming pool for Europeans.

But this Russian display remains constrained by Russian economic capabilities. Russia is not an economic or financial rival to the United States, at least under current conditions. The display is very costly, and Russia suffers from a financial shortfall, especially with the global decline in oil and gas prices. Russia is a wealthy state with many natural resources, but its capabilities for investing this wealth have remained limited, and it has long relied on Western companies to invest in its territory. This means the West is likely to twist Russia’s arm economically, unless Russia makes good use of the treasures buried in its soil.

Improving Relations Between States

The world is now economically turbulent, and household and family expenses are rising across the whole world, and peoples look to improve their living conditions, holding their governments accountable according to the standard of economic conditions. Governments and the parties forming them are keen to remain in power, and have no choice but to improve people’s conditions, an improvement that does not come through wars but through savings and investment.

Accordingly, rational governments do not head toward wars, so as not to provoke people and inflict injustice on them, but instead search for security, stability, and peace. This is why Russia will turn to improving its relations with states somewhat hostile to it, namely Japan and some Eastern European states, Latvia and Estonia especially, and will work to address its internal problems with non-Russian ethnicities. America, for its part, will scale back its interventions in world affairs, and a conviction will develop within it that it is not the state responsible for the world.

It will be difficult for America to escape the Russian proposal calling for forming an international coalition against terrorism. America has failed in its war against terrorism, and may now realize it must cooperate with others according to principles of mutual respect to confront global terrorism.

Israel

Nuclear states do not resort to escalating their disputes to the point of war, but Israel is the global spoiler always capable of straining international relations. Israel has long, continuously pushed toward America rebelling against the nuclear agreement with Iran, which will inflame many disputes that could end in a war in the region. It also continues inciting America against Russia in Syria.

Regardless of our agreement or disagreement with Russia, Israeli orientations are bound to further worsen the region’s conditions, and tomorrow it will incite against Egypt and other Arab states. Israel finds no reassurance in an atmosphere of security and peace, always seeing killing and destruction as serving its goals. So will the Americans realize what Israel is dragging them into?

Source: Translated from the original Arabic, “المستجد في السياسة الخارجية الروسية” by Dr. Abdul-Sattar Kassem.